Sirtori Consulting · Quantitative Research · Signal Methodology v1.0
Gold · Macro · Positioning · Signal · AI
A deterministic, rule-based market-regime framework for gold. Signal levels are not price predictions. No predictive power is claimed. The model determines the score.
Gold Market
Real-time spot prices · OANDA via TradingView
Key Macro Drivers
FRED, TradingView, CBOE · Signal input indicators
Signal Factor 03 — Rule-based, parameter provisional
Signal Factor 02 — Rule-based, parameter provisional
Rate benchmark · Not a direct Signal input
Policy rate · Drives real yield expectations
Signal Factor 04 — ETF proxy · Provisional input
Signal Factor 07 — Provisional regime-based
Sirtori Gold Signal
Deterministic composite · 7 weighted factors · v1.0 provisional weights · WEEKLY UPDATE
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| Factor / Raw Input | Class | Weight | Score | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading... | ||||
Score scale: 0–2 Strong Bearish · 2–4 Bearish · 4–6 Neutral · 6–8 Bullish · 8–10 Strong Bullish
COT crowding: Net long above 80th percentile triggers crowding discount — flagged independently of directional score
Weights: v1.0 provisional — will be reviewed after sufficient historical observations. No optimization before backtesting.
Model objective: Reproducibility and auditability. The model determines the score. If the result is 4.8, 4.8 is shown.
What Changed?
Key market developments · Last 7 days · Updated weekly by Andrea Sirtori
AI Market Commentary
Claude (Anthropic) interprets signal data · Not investment advice · No predictive claim
Sirtori View
Qualitative advisory · Distinct from the quantitative Signal · The two may disagree · Updated manually
The Sirtori View represents independent human judgment. It is intentionally separate from the quantitative Signal and may reach different conclusions. The Signal is systematic and rule-based. The Sirtori View incorporates judgment, context and experience. Both are shown transparently.
Not yet published.
Not yet published.
Not yet published.
Macro Charts
Interactive · TradingView / FRED
Physical Gold Market
Spot prices · Physical market data integrated progressively
Primary global benchmark
OANDA via TradingViewEuropean FO reference
OANDA via TradingViewSwiss custody reference
OANDA via TradingViewN/A
SGE premium over LBMA. Data license pending.
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WGC quarterly. Updated manually after each WGC release.
Strongest macro predictor
Policy rate
Relative value indicator
Data & Sources
| Source | Data | Frequency | Status | License |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OANDA via TradingView | XAU/USD, XAU/EUR, XAU/CHF spot | Real-time | LIVE | Widget (free) |
| FRED — Federal Reserve | Real yield DFII10, Fed Funds, EUR/USD | Daily/Monthly | LIVE | Public domain |
| TradingView | DXY, US10Y, Metals, GLD, VIX | Real-time | LIVE | Widget (free) |
| World Gold Council | Central bank demand (Signal F05) · ETF flows proxy (Signal F04) | Quarterly/Monthly | QUARTERLY | Public reports |
| CFTC | COT gold futures positioning (Signal F06) | Weekly | WEEKLY | Public domain |
| Anthropic / Claude | AI commentary — interpretation only, not a data source | On demand | ACTIVE | API |
Signal Methodology v1.0
Full documentation · Every formula, weight and classification · Changes increment the version number · No undocumented assumptions
The Sirtori Gold Signal is a weighted composite score (0–10) across 7 independent market factors. Each factor is normalised to 0–10 via a factor-specific deterministic formula. The composite is the weighted average. The model determines the score — it is not optimised to produce any target result. No predictive power is claimed. The framework will be investigated for any relationship between Signal levels and subsequent gold returns only after sufficient historical observations exist.
Model Status — v1.0
Formula explicit and reproducible. Parameters not empirically calibrated from historical data.
5 / 7
Momentum · Real Yields · USD/DXY · Central Banks · COT
Normalisation based on historical observations with documented statistical methodology.
0 / 7
None yet — target for Phase 2 development
Methodology or underlying data not yet sufficiently robust for institutional use.
2 / 7
ETF Flows · Volatility
Look-ahead bias: When calculating a historical observation at date T, only data available at T is used.
Predictive power: No predictive claim is made. Relationship between Signal levels and subsequent returns will be investigated only after sufficient observations exist.
Version control: Changes to formulas, weights or normalisation rules increment the methodology version. All logged observations retain the version under which they were calculated.
Optimisation: Weights will not be changed based on current Signal results. Changes require historical evidence and explicit approval.
Development Roadmap — Phase 2
Replace discrete -2/+2 input with actual GLD/IAU weekly flow data. Calculate 4W and 12W cumulative flows as percentile vs 3-year history. Source: SPDR/iShares public data or WGC monthly. Target: v1.1.
Replace VIX regime breakpoints with historical percentile of VIX + gold realised volatility. Investigate non-linear VIX/gold relationship using historical data. Target: v1.1 or v1.2.
Replace provisional coefficients (1.2 for yields, 106 anchor for DXY) with historically calibrated parameters derived from FRED data (TIPS from 2003, DXY from 1971). Target: v1.2.
Replace manually-entered 3Y min/max with automated calculation from CFTC weekly CSV history. Eliminate single-point-of-failure on manual input. Target: v1.2.
Analyse historical distribution of Momentum scores before considering any formula change. Document how frequently scores of 8+, 9+ occur. No formula changes before evidence review. Target: v1.2.
After 26+ weekly observations, analyse relationship between Signal levels (2–4, 4–6, 6–8, 8–10) and subsequent gold returns (30d/60d/90d). Publish results transparently regardless of outcome. Target: v2.0.
Important Disclaimer
Sirtori Gold Intelligence is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell financial instruments or physical precious metals. The Sirtori Gold Signal is a quantitative market-regime framework — no predictive power is claimed. Signal levels are not price predictions. Data may be delayed. AI commentary is generated by Claude (Anthropic) from signal data only — it does not access real-time markets independently. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Sirtori Consulting is registered with OCF. P.IVA 04522760166 · Via Manzoni 13, 24040 Castel Rozzone (BG).